Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Linsanity

Gold is a reflection that there is no other escape out of this problematic situation we are trapped in than printing money to prevent systemic collapse - Felix Zulauf, Swiss money manager
Everyone else is jumping on the Jeremy Lin promotional hype...why shouldn't I?  But I'll poke at it from a slightly different angle.  Maybe from the perspective you might get on CNBC if it were gold instead of a New York Knick basketball player with an Ivy League degree.  Is the sudden meteoric media interest in Jeremy Lin a bubble?

One bubble the Government is definitely trying desperately to re-inflate is housing.  Today it was reported that new homebuilder sentiment had reached a 5-month high of 29.  Anything below 50 reflects overall poor sentiment but the media was spinning it into housing market Disneyland:  "Builder mood best in years" - Marketwatch.  Well here's a pin to prick that bubble-attempt:  "Mortgage applications down as purchase demand falls" - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported today that mortgage purchase applications tanked over 8% from week to week for the week ending Feb 10.  That's a real data sample of what's going on in the real economy, as opposed to the happy prozac-induced "sentiment" reading.  It's like looking outside and seeing a bright blue sky and sunshine and then stepping outside without a coat on and discovering that it's 10 degrees...Ironically, we are starting to head into the part of the housing seasonality in which purchases should be increasing, not decreasing.   Call me insane, but with mortgage rates at record lows and median pricing hitting new lows every month, isn't demand supposed to be increasing?

The other bubble that is starting to lose air is the Treasury market bubble.  I've been commenting for quite some time that eventually China/Asia is going to start aggressively reducing its exposure to U.S. Treasuries.  Of course, like everything else I was a bit early.  But over the last year China has reduced its exposure by $60 billion.  This is exceeded only by Russia's dumping $63 billion.  Of course, Russia has cut its exposure by nearly 50% in the last 12 months.  Eventually we'll see China show a 50% reduction as well.  But that would mean selling over half a trillion in Treasuries. The question is, how will the Government finance its massive projected spending deficit (i.e. the debt ceiling is already going to be breached two months earlier than originally projected back in September per Obama AND per this blog way before Obama admitted it)  if China reduces its investment in Treasuries by over half a trillion?  If you want that answer, see the opening quote.

A lot of analysts/bloggers have said in the past that even though China may show an occassional month to month reduction in Treasury holdings, they are likely replacing these sales by buying them through UK banks.   Not to lift my leg on this view, which I never placed credence in anyway, but China unloaded a massive $30 billion in December and the UK banks unloaded another $9 billion...LINK  The fact of the matter is that, given that interest rates are at historical lows and have nowhere to go but up - which means that Treasury bond prices have nowhere to go but down - the sane, rational investor would logically not want to own any Treasuries except maybe T-bills.  The question is, where do you put your money?  Again, see the quote at the top of the page.

Finally, I was chatting with a friend of mine yesterday evening who happens to have probably 20-30% of his net worth in physical gold/silver and GLD.  He commented that it seems like "you goldbugs who have gone all-in with gold/silver/miners" are cheering for the demise of our system because you'll make a lot of money on your holdings.  I almost fell of my bar stool.  First and foremost, if the reasons we ultimately own physical gold and silver fully materialize, yes our "investment" portfolio will soar in value.  But, quite frankly, it also means it won't do us much good because there's a "Mad Max/The Road" situation going in the world at large.  It would be insane to be cheering for that.

The reason the people who "get it" have 90% of the their investibles in gold/silver/mining stocks is that our Central Banks and Government leaders have given us a "Hobson's choice."   A Hobson's choice is when you are given a free choice but only one option is offered.  It implies that you only have one option and that option is likely not a desired option.  It's a no-opton "choice."  To put that in the context of why goldbugs have chosen the optional non-option of going "all in" in the metals sector, see the opening quote.  In other words, for everyone not substantially invested in physical gold and silver (not paper ETFs), the only choice is complete wealth destruction.

21 comments:

  1. Hey Dave you had your sports bubble in Denver with Tebow. We have ours in new York with Lin. Thank God we have something like this to keep us distracted from the BS that's going on in the world. BTW the Knicks will rise the way PMs will. There is a strong correlation. Mark my words.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LOL Ari. Hey I think it's great. I just hope Carmello doesn't spoil it. I wish the Knicks were coming to Denver because I'd scalp tickets to watch Lin! Hell he did it again last night!

      Delete
  2. Great post. I have asked myself ... as I stack silver, food and ammo ... am I hoping for Mad Max? The answer is No, my lifespan will vastly diminish, as will my childrens'. But I feel like I have no choice but to prepare for the worst, so I learn combat shooting when I'd rather be shooting pictures of the kids. *sigh*

    ReplyDelete
  3. See amor's summary^^

    A Hobson choice. No shit. Thanks, D.

    ReplyDelete
  4. @ "He commented that it seems like "you goldbugs who have gone all-in with gold/silver/miners" are cheering for the demise of our system because you'll make a lot of money on your holdings." ...the gold bugs did not create this....the fiat, debt bubble, oligarch crony capitalistic system did...blame mark to fantasy, saver annihilation via zirp, 2 tiered legal system, etc....maybe his greatest worry is that his allocation is too low?






    Poor America - P a n o r a m a [B B C] - Broadcast Date: 13th February 2012

    POOR AMERICA

    With one and a half million (1.5 million) American children now homeless, reporter Hilary Andersson meets the school pupils who go hungry in the richest country on Earth. From those living in the storm drains under Las Vegas to the tent cities now springing up around the United States, P a n o r a m a finds out how the poor are surviving in America and asks whatever happened to the supposed 'government' and the Real People in charge - those who you 'don't see' pulling on the strings; and their vision and welfare for the country.

    Could this be a form of 'Social cleansing' without the need of war or disease inflicted by the orchestrators - simply a controlled bout of poverty? Or is this the forced education that only condition children to know only a certain amount of knowledge that can only ever see them progress in working environments such as confined offices within the 'Human Zoo' qualities within the desperately overcrowded cities.

    Why are our children not educated properly - to be able to survive communally with real craft and building skills? Is the social mobility (as in other 'rich countries' such as the UK) only fairing the rich; the wealthy and the 'clever elite'; the white collar criminal, as per usual?

    Broadcast Date: 13th February 2012

    http://youtu.be/suJCvkazrTc

    ReplyDelete
  5. Melo's a worry for sure. but if he f's it up the fans will kill him. BTW another great performance tonight although he Kings are more like Queens,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LOL. Denver got douched by the Mavericks. But Denver is reeling with injuries. Melo is the ultimate vanity player. Looks great on offense but can't be bothered with playing any defense.

      Delete
  6. D.I.D,

    You sir, a bastion of defence for the greater truth. Your site is a dialy norm for me and for that I thank you.

    I forward your writings to my loved one's on the Dalmatian coast in Croatia, and they as well are truly grateful.

    Kind regards,

    Tony

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the feedback Tony. I really appreciate it. Hope you all are accumulating physical gold/silver.

      Delete
  7. Good stuff as always Dave.

    Bill

    ReplyDelete
  8. If after all this - Europe in chaos, banks and sovereign being downgraded left right and centre, BOE printing another 18% more, Bank of Japan chucking more money in, what more does the precious metal bull need??

    It's becoming fairly obvious who the sheeple actually are! Why - its the precious metal folks.

    Especially in the miners. If look at the graphs of each and every miner - HECLA - does that look like a bull to you. You can take Kinross, Barrick.

    After all this - at the end of the 2008 crises one would have been better off doing the Buffet thing - invest for dividends and the return was higher.

    Of course only physical Gold could have compensated somewhat. But anything else around this industry was for naught. Now the HUI is fighting the breakdown level - instead of the breakout.

    I remember the wonderful man Embry saying that the shorts will get a religious experience and even Jim Sinclair saying - when HUI "broke out" at around 640 or so that you all could go in full to the metal.

    Be careful what you wish for - the shorts are getting a religious experience but probably not the one Embry meant.

    Big bagholders!!!

    ReplyDelete
  9. @Anon12:38 AM...Is that you Warren?:)


    Debt saturation ensures much higher gold and silver

    Despite these offensive raids, gold still posted an 11-percent year-over-year price gain in 2011, marking the 11th consecutive year the price had been up, a feat the venerable investment letter writer Richard Russell termed unprecedented in any significant asset class.

    However, in spite of this exemplary performance over the past decade the vast proportion of society remains blithely unaware of what is unfolding in the gold and silver markets. This stems from many sources, the first being the relentlessly negative press from the mainstream media on the subject. How many times does the public have to be subjected to the views of the likes of Jon Nadler of Kitco and Jeff Christian of CPM Group, to name but two? They are not true analysts but purely and simply establishment propagandists whose sole purpose, in my opinion, is to provide disinformation to keep the unsuspecting public away from precious metals.

    Then the anti-gold cartel, with its insidious paper raids, creates wild volatility and totally counterintuitive price action that further discourages all but the most knowledgeable and committed believers in the only real money, gold and silver.

    In reality, to date, the public hasn't had a chance. Whenever they have stuck their toe in the water, almost without exception they have been burned as yet another raid knocked them out of the box. When that happens often enough, most people just give up and go away and that is exactly what has occurred.

    http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1329335392.php

    ReplyDelete
  10. anon @ 12:38,

    "It's becoming fairly obvious who the sheeple actually are! Why - its the precious metal folks."


    in other words, what you've done is taken the traditional argument that what has been, will be. That if one gambles and speculates in the markets, they are better off than holding precious metals that currently obtains its value via suppressed paper prices and whose paper value is dependent on selling a gigantic amount of paper based on a finite amount of base precious metals ie. a fractional bullion banking system.

    appreciate your opinion, but no thanks, i've stopped gambling/speculating and take the opposite approach, a full out 100% into physical metals.

    good luck with the paper trading!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Dave, Linsanity continues, and he only played about 28 min last night! These Knicks are a totally different team - he seems to get everyone involved...if he can limit his turnovers, drive left like he can to the right, and a bit stronger for post up defence, uh oh...interesting to see what happens when Carmelo comes back, he of the I want the ball in my hands 90% of the time variety...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Melo will urinate on Linsanity. He's not a team player and he's never been a team player. I think he's played about 5 minutes of total defense in his entire career. He's nothing but an uneducated narcissist who can do one thing - put the ball in the hoop. It's a shame because he played great defense for those 5 minutes. It was against LeBron and Melo usually played his best all-round ball when Denver played the Cavs.

      Delete
  12. And he's sucking at putting the ball in the hoop this year, shooting is brutal...can't disagree on defense, he sb lock down with his athleticism...

    Interesting also is the Stoudemire aspect - guy loves the pick n roll and drive and dish which Lin seems to be effective at - and the 2-3 guards a r quite the slashers, fitting Lin's style/smarts...

    ReplyDelete
  13. Interesting speech....


    Rob McEwen Keynote Speaker 124th Annual Toronto Board of Trade Dinner

    http://youtu.be/ruplsjX7TlI

    ReplyDelete
  14. John Embry-The Matterhorn Interview-02/2012


    What has the evidence been that the gold market isn’t a free market?

    John Embry: Our report which was written 7 ½ years ago revealed all sorts of chicanery in the gold market and we only used evidence which could be corroborated. Considerable additional evidence has piled up subsequently but two smoking guns are the repetitive counter intuitive price action and evidence of widespread clandestine leasing of western central bank gold.



    Who are the ones that don’t like a free gold market and which objectives do they have in mind by preventing a free gold market?

    John Embry: The western governments, their central banks and the allied bullion banks are the culprits. They view gold as a mortal enemy of the fiat currency system. Gold has been real money for centuries and every paper money system in history has ultimately collapsed. This drives them to continuously denigrate and manipulate gold.



    Through which tools is the gold price “managed“?

    John Embry: The worst damage occurs in the so-called paper gold market where derivatives, naked shorting, vicious margin hikes, etc. are employed to fleece the long side who don’t have as deep pockets. In addition, the western central banks have supplied the physical gold necessary to effect the plan through their leasing.



    Recently, I was told by a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul A. Volcker, that to his best knowledge “the U.S. has not intervened in the gold market for more than 40 years.“ (2) Do you think Mr. Volcker has the truth on his side?

    John Embry: Mr. Volcker admitted that the U.S. had made a mistake by not intervening at one point in the gold market some 40 years, so to think that nothing has happened subsequently is extremely naïve. Technically he might be correct in the sense that swaps could have been employed and the intervention using U.S. gold could have been conducted by another party. Recently retired Fed Governor Kevin Warsh acknowledged U.S. gold swaps in correspondence with GATA just last year. (3)


    http://goldswitzerland.com/index.php/the-matterhorn-interview-with-john-embry-february-2012/

    ReplyDelete
  15. yup...history repeats....

    Obama wants cheaper pennies and nickels

    Woodrow Wilson to Obama looks almost identical to Augustus to Aurelian and took less than half as long. I wonder if they see the irony?


    http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/02/16/jims-mailbox-864/

    ReplyDelete